Beyond any categorization, it can be said without a doubt that the forced migration issue addressed is much broader and more complex than appears at first instance, manifesting itself in a widespread way both along the timeline and in global space. In this regard, the most recent data provided by the UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, relating to global trends on forced displacement bear witness to what has been stated (fig. 2). In particular, by the end of 2021, continuing a worrying decade-long rising trend, the number of people forced to flee had climbed to 89.3 million. This is more than double the 42.7 million who remained forcibly displaced at the end of 2012 and represents a sharp 8 per cent increase of almost seven million people in the span of just 12 months.

During 2021, some 1.7 million people crossed international borders seeking protection and 14.4 million new displacements within their countries were reported [IDCM 2021]. Internal displacement was markedly higher in 2021 than in recent years, while those crossing borders seeking protection remained muted ¶{p. 278}compared to pre-pandemic levels as health-related border and travel restrictions remained in effect in many locations.

On the other hand, most countries that remained closed to those seeking international protection at the end of 2021, rather than keep their asylum systems completely closed, introduced some adaptive elements which improved access to varying degrees [6] .

The year was perhaps most notable for the number of existing conflicts that escalated and new conflicts that flared up. According to the World Bank, 23 countries, with a combined population of 850 million people, faced high- or medium-intensity conflict in 2021. In Afghanistan, the events leading up to the Taliban takeover of Kabul in August 2021 resulted in displacement within the country as well as into neighbouring countries. The number of people displaced internally rose for the 15th straight year, even as more than 790,000 Afghans returned during the year. The conflict in the Tigray region in Ethiopia led to at least 2.5 million more people being displaced within their country, with some 1.5 million of them returning to their homes during the year. Violent insurgencies in the Central Sahel region of Africa continued to drive internal displacement, particularly in Burkina Faso. In Myanmar, the military takeover in February 2021 ignited widespread violence and forced many people to flee. With renewed displacement from Venezuela, primarily to other Latin American countries, the number of Venezuelans displaced abroad also grew by more than half a million. In addition, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan, the Syrian Arab Republic and Yemen all saw increases of between 100,000 and 500,000 people displaced internally during the year. ¶{p. 279}

The climate crisis is making the humanitarian situation even worse. With regard specifically to the MENA region it is true that the deterioration of the natural system, co-existing with a status of diffuse poverty and social tension, of poor governance, and the presence of current and potential new conflicts, could create a «vicious circle» of migration. Environment/climate changes, however, rather than produce mass international migration towards Western countries, will probably reinforce the existing migratory patterns. Based on the current pattern of migration, it is also likely that much of the migration, and particularly that which could be directly attributed to environmental/climate change, will remain within the region as has happened in the past, and/or assume the form of internal (rural-rural, rural-urban) migration.

In this context, it is impossible to overlook the recent events concerning the war in Ukraine that broke out in February 2022: from 24 February to 29 May 2022, 6.8 million refugee movements out of Ukraine were recorded, while 2.2 million population movements into Ukraine were recorded during the same period, including those of a pendular nature [UNHCR n.a. a; UNHCR n.a. b]. It is one of the largest forced displacement crises since World War II, and certainly the fastest. It should be remembered that refugees fleeing Ukraine are hosted by predominantly high-income European countries. They have also been offered temporary protection status by European Union Member States, with more than 2.8 million refugees having registered for such schemes. With millions of Ukrainians displaced and further displacement elsewhere in 2022, total forced displacement now exceeds 100 million people. This means that one in every 78 people on earth has been forced to flee – a dramatic milestone whereby many of the 36.2 million refugees, asylum seekers and others forced to flee across borders who had already been displaced by the end of 2021 faced conditions that were much more dire, with women and children disproportionately exposed to deep-rooted discrimination and extreme vulnerability [7] .¶{p. 281}

Following two decades of progress – including a decline from over 9.5 per cent in 2016 to 8.4 per cent in 2019 – global poverty rose in 2020 and 2021, with the pandemic-related economic downturn pushing 100 million or more people into extreme poverty, exacerbating existing inequalities [World Bank 2022]. In particular, during the pandemic the socio-economic well-being of both forcibly displaced and host populations deteriorated in most countries. Both populations have lost assets, savings, income and access to basic services, and many are severely food-insecure. If the conditions of host communities vary widely, even among refugees the incidence of poverty may vary widely by country of origin, household size, education level, arrival date, gender and other factors. In this regard, while the lack of comprehensive data precludes regional or global estimates at this time, existing country-specific studies provide an early indication of the poverty levels and the impacts of some variables upon them.

Among such studies it is worth mentioning the Gender Dimensions of Forced Displacement (GDFD) research programme, promoted by the World Bank, with support from the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office. To uncover gender-poverty links among forced displaced people, nine detailed country investigations and three multi-country papers covering 17 countries were produced [Klugman 2022]. Findings from multi-country studies of multidimensional poverty covering Ethiopia, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan, and monetary poverty analysis in Somalia and Jordan, indicate that households of displaced people are generally poorer than non-displaced households. The gender of the household head was an indicator of deprivation in most, but not all, countries under investigation.

Within households, gender emerged as an important predictive factor of a higher Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) and an indicator of chronic deprivation, such as school completion. Among the multidimensionally poor, girls were, indeed, less likely than boys to complete school.