To guide policymakers towards appropriate action, it is crucial to identify the effects on specific sectors (fig. 3). The sectors most impacted in Spain in terms of production and value-added are mining of non-energy products and textiles, with reductions higher than 1 per cent of their production and value-added respectively. In Spain, indirect effects seem quite small and not important in the 10 sectors which decrease a higher part of their production and value-added in relative terms. However, even though the wholesale and retail trade sectors do not engage in direct exports to Russia, they are still significantly (particularly in absolute terms) affected due to the potential indirect effects caused by disruptions in global value chains and trade flows. This is particularly important when considering the value-added component, which takes into account the economic value added at each stage of the production process. The wholesale and retail ¶{p. 102}trade sectors contribute value-added by distributing goods and linking buyers with sellers, which means that any disruptions in this sector can have far-reaching effects throughout the value chain.

On the other hand, in Italy, the sectors that are most impacted in terms of production are machinery and equipment, textiles, chemical and electrical equipment. In general, both Italy and Spain appear to be more affected by direct than indirect impacts. However, the magnitude of indirect effects is much greater in Italy than in Spain, meaning that the Italian economy is more internally connected between sectors. Indeed, for fabricated metal products, the situation is reversed in Italy, as they seem to be more affected by indirect than direct effects. This suggests that the production and export of these products rely heavily on inputs from other sectors of the Italian economy.

Along with the economic impacts due to the export disruption with Russia, we should consider the potential social impacts. Social impact can be measured in terms of people at risk of becoming unemployed, i.e. workers who may lose their jobs if output decreases. Using Smart TIO, we also get the direct and indirect effects of exports to Russian disruptions in terms of the share of workers from total employment that may lose their job [7] . As is clear from figure 2, the effects arrive at 0.07 per cent in terms of total persons engaged for Spain and 0.24 per cent for Italy, the indirect effects being almost half the total effects.

Taking into account that sectors have different intensities in labour, social effects can be quite different from the effects on production (fig. 4). Actually, this is the case of the wood and wood products or fabricated metal products sectors for Spain that have around 1 per cent of their employment affected and were not in the top 10 most affected in terms of production and value added.

Additionally, in absolute terms, wholesale and retail trade is the sector most severely hit in Spain in terms of employment where more than 2,670 people will be at risk of losing their job and it would be the second most affected sector (after machinery) in Italy with 7,360 people. All the impacts in the wholesale and retail trade sector are entirely driven by indirect effects. ¶{p. 105}