Mediterranean Economies 2023
DOI: 10.1401/9788815411167/c5
COVID 19
Impact. The COVID-19 pandemic had a substantial impact on the global
markets for food and agriculture. Supply and
¶{p. 161}demand shocks
took place, global supply chains were disrupted. The use of export restrictions to
ensure food security re-emerged in a similar way to the quantitative restrictions
during the price spikes of 2007-2008 [Martin and Glauber 2020], in addition to
governmental support to the farming sector, and more flexible import restrictions
[Hepburn et al. 2021]. In heavy net food importing
countries(such as Egypt, Jordan, Palestine and Yemen), food prices surged because of
the heavy import dependency, especially in cereals. The burden is heavier for
countries that subsidize wheat flour and bread (such as Egypt), as they will have to
increase their subsidies due to rising import prices. In several MENA countries,
households had to face several challenges that affected their food purchase and
consumption. According to the household survey results on difficulties related to
getting food summarized in figure 8, 81 per cent of surveyed households in Tunisia
reported being unable to buy the usual quantity of food because its price had
increased and 77 per cent because household income decreased. Moreover, 60 per cent
of the households had to cope by reducing their food consumption. At the same time,
59 per cent reported reduced food purchases due to supply shortages and 39 per cent
due to restrictions imposed by the government on the mobility of people and/or
market closures. In Morocco, the impact of COVID-19 on food security appears to be
less severe, with only 9 per cent of the surveyed households reporting shortages in
markets. In Morocco, the government responded to the crisis by adopting a more
liberal approach, compared to other countries in the region. Tariffs were reduced on
wheat, lentils, chickpeas, and beans [Mandour 2021]. Despite these measures, 50 per
cent of the surveyed households reported an increase in prices, and 54 per cent
reported a drop in their income that led to decreased food purchases. Nearly one
third of the surveyed households had to adopt negative coping mechanisms by reducing
their food intake. In the case of Jordan, shortages in markets and mobility issues
also appear to be less of a challenge, while reduced food purchases due to increase
in food prices and decrease in household income affected 50 per cent and 54 per
cent, respectively. Among the surveyed households, 39 per cent had to cope with the
effects of the pandemic by reducing their food intake. The picture looks slightly
better for Egypt, where 10 per cent reported having difficulties accessing food
because ¶{p. 162}of mobility restrictions and 21 per cent reported
shortages in the market. Egypt has implemented some export prohibitions on beans and
lentils, expanded cash transfers and increased consumer subsidies to tackle both
availability and access to food (ibidem). However, a share of
43 per cent and 46 per cent of the surveyed households reported a reduction in food
consumption due to price surges and income drops, respectively. Finally, 44 per cent
had to adopt negative coping mechanisms.
War in
Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine, together with the EU, USA and Canada,
account for 75 per cent of the global exports of wheat [Smith and Glauber 2020]. In
2019, Russia and Ukraine accounted together for nearly 30 per cent of global wheat
exports [Martin and Glauber 2020]. The MENA region heavily depends
¶{p. 163}on the imports of several food items from Russia and
Ukraine, such as wheat, sunflower oil seeds, and cereals. According to the
International Trade Centre data for 2021, 29 per cent of total cereal imports come
from both countries. The share of Russian cereals represented 17 per cent in the
total imports of cereals, while that of Ukrainian cereals accounted for 12 per cent.
MENA countries like Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia produce only between 30 per cent and
50 per cent of their cereal requirements domestically. Egypt, one of the largest
cereals importers in the world, covers more than 86 per cent of its total wheat
imports from Russia and Ukraine [Keulertz and Byiringiro 2022].
In Lebanon, this share is as
high as 96 per cent. Other MENA countries like Libya, Oman, Qatar, and Tunisia, also
source more than 50 per cent from both countries. In contrast to these heavy
dependencies on Russian and Ukrainian wheat, other MENA countries such as Iraq,
Algeria, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Palestine either do not import wheat
from both countries or import a minor share (less than 2 per cent)
(ibidem). As the war continues, more than half of the
countries in the region will continue to suffer from long term supply chain
disruptions and price surges. Given the population growth and the additional
¶{p. 164}importance of some imported cereals for animal feed, the
region’s dependency on cereal imports will continue to rise.
4.2. Structural Challenges
Increasing
Population. Food security is not only a persistent challenge because
of the region’s current exposure and vulnerability to global shocks, but also due to
the persistence of longstanding structural challenges that will only worsen the
status of food security in the future. Figure 10 depicts the population growth
across different regions between 2026 and 2050. The estimations suggest that East
Asia and the Pacific and South Asia are likely to witness the largest annual
population growth, with 2 to 2.5 billion new births annually. Sub-Saharan Africa is
also expected to witness rapid population growth during the same period, with 1.4 to
2.2 billion new births annually. In the MENA region, the population is expected to
grow annually by 0.5 to 0.7 billion people between 2026 and 2050. Overall, the
region’s ¶{p. 165}population is expected to be above 533 million by
2030 and more than 694 million by 2050 [Keulertz and Byiringiro 2022]. Hence, the
region will need to increase its food supply to match the population growth, while
ensuring a healthy and diversified diet to meet the needs of the different age
groups for micronutrients. In fact, one of the major challenges in the region is
that healthy food (including fruit, vegetables, and animal protein) is unaffordable,
forcing a significant proportion of the population to opt for more affordable
starchy food and cereals (ibid).
Water
Stress. Climate changes, land degradation, and water stress represent
a core threat to food security in the MENA region. According to IFPRI IMPACT model
projections for 2050, climate changes leading to more frequent extreme climate
events are expected to increase the number of food insecure households in developing
countries [Smith and Glauber 2020]. This also applies to the MENA region, where
agricultural output is expected to drop by the end of the century [Lee, Mohtar and
Yoo 2019].
In fact, the MENA region is
among the driest regions in the world, with an annual regional average of 1,200
cubic meters per capita, compared to a global average of 7,000 cubic meters per
capita [Zolfaghari and Jariani 2021]. The region is home to 5 per cent of the global
population but has access to only 1 per cent of the world’s renewable water supply,
and total water demand exceeds the available water supply by almost 20 per cent
[Martens 2017].
Moreover, only 30 per cent of
the land in the region is suitable for agriculture [Mandour 2021]. Figure 11 depicts
the actual status of water stress in the MENA region. With the exception of few
areas along the Nile, the North African coast, and some areas in Iraq, MENA
countries suffer from high to extremely high water stress (fig. 11). Due to these
natural constraints, the potential for increasing agriculture in the region is
limited. Given that agriculture uses about 80 per cent of the total water supply in
many MENA countries, enhancing water management may help with increasing
agricultural output [Woertz 2017].
¶{p. 166}
Note