First coined in the 1970s, the term «polycrisis» has been popularized by Financial Times contributing editor and Columbia University economic historian Adam Tooze to describe a situation where disparate crises interact such that the overall impact far exceeds the sum of each part [Tooze 2022].

The FFPI already recorded before the Russian invasion the highest level since 2008, the year in which the global food crisis had unleashed popular uprisings and political instability that would ultimately be among the triggers for the so-called Arab Spring. The increase in nominal food prices was strictly related to five structural and conjunctural factors that acted simultaneously on both food supply and demand, namely demographic trends, urbanization, climate change impact, dietary homogenization and, more recently, the COVID-19 pandemic.

According to USDA data, just seven countries plus the EU account for 90 per cent of the world’s wheat exports, and only four countries account for 87 per cent of the world’s maize exports [IPES-FOOD 2022].

The IPCC estimates that climate change has reduced agricultural productivity growth by 21 per cent since 1961, and by up to 34 per cent in Africa and Latin America [Quagliarotti 2023].

The pipeline from Russia to Odessa was designed to pump up to 2.5 million tons of ammonia per year. From Soviet times, ammonia travelled south-east along a 2,418-kilometre pipeline that crosses Ukraine for over a thousand kilometres from the Russian border to the Black Sea. From there the fertilizer reached the rest of the world by ship.

While countries restricted food exports to ensure adequate supplies for their population during the conflict, Russia restricted food exports mainly to respond to the economic sanctions imposed by the European Union, United States, Canada and other countries.

A widespread food global crisis has been averted only thanks to the intervention of the international community. In May 2022, the European Commission launched the EU Solidarity Lanes Initiative to help Ukraine to bypass the blockade of Ukrainian seaports by the Russian army and other supply chain disruption, facilitating the export of Ukrainian agricultural products to third countries using EU land routes and seaports and freeing storage capacity for the new harvest. In addition, in July 2022, two agreements were signed: the Memorandum of Understanding between the United Nations and the Russian Federation to facilitate the unimpeded access of food and fertilizers exports to global markets; the BSGI, signed by the Russian Federation, Turkey and Ukraine, and witnessed by the United Nations to allow the safe export of grain, fertilizers and other foodstuff from Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea. Before the war, more than 90 per cent of ships had departed from seaports. Between the onset of the war and the implementation of the BSGI, this share abruptly dropped to 20 per cent and rivers became the main shipping routes for Ukrainian exports. After the signing of the BSGI, the share almost doubled. The agreement helped to bring down the cost of food, stabilize global markets and keep them open.

Water security has been defined as «the reliable availability of an acceptable quantity and quality of water for health, livelihoods and production, coupled with an acceptable level of water-related risks»; energy security has been defined as «access to clean, reliable and affordable energy services for cooking and heating, lighting, communications and productive uses», and as «uninterrupted physical availability [of energy] at a price which is affordable, while respecting environment concerns»; food security is defined as «availability and access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet the dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life». Adequate food has also been defined as a human right [FAO 2014].

The virtual water concept was coined by Tony Allan in 1993 to describe the hidden flow of water in food or other commodities that are traded from one place to another. For example, cereal grains have been major carriers of virtual water in countries where water resources are scarce. Therefore, cereal imports can play a crucial role in offsetting local water deficit [Allan 1998].

Keulertz and Woertz [2016] explicitly underline the importance that energy exports have for steering the Gulf States towards food imports as an alternative to improving their WEF resource management, but they also highlight how reducing domestic trade-offs can lead to higher exposure internationally.

In Italy, the effects of the significant reduction in Russian supply have been particularly pronounced due to the high percentage of gas in Italy’s energy supply (45 per cent), combined with its dependence on imports in the energy sector (75 per cent in 2021), due to the country’s scarcity of gas fields and the environmental concerns and legal constraints that have hindered gas extraction in the past [Caprile and Pichon 2022].

OPEC+ is a group of 23 oil-exporting countries which meets regularly to decide how much crude oil to sell on the world market.

GASC is an Egyptian economic body affiliated to the Ministry of Supply and Home Trade established by Republican Decree No 1189/1968 to overcome the crises arising in the Egyptian market during 1967 and in subsequent years. It aims to activate the local and international market mechanism in order to procure the strategic commodities needed by the state so as to achieve the following targets: improve productivity and raise agricultural production efficiency; develop marketing and promotional services; establish strategic governmental food stocks; achieve structural suitability within the state marketing system; create competitiveness, prohibit monopoly and make the local market balanced (http://www.gasc.gov.eg).

Egypt has high rates of overweight and obesity, which are linked to food subsidies and associated consumption of energy-dense foods.